Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) simple climate model
Project description
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FaIR
FaIR (the Finite-amplitude Impulse-Response) climate model is a simple climate model, or emulator, useful for producing global mean temperature projections from a wide range of emissions or prescribed forcing scenarios.
Requirements
- python 3.6+
Installation
Refer to The Docs_.
Usage
FaIR can be driven by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived forcers (SLCFs), concentrations of GHGs, or effective radiative forcing (ERF), with different input methods for different species possible in the same run. If run concentration-driven, emissions are back-calculated. Custom GHGs and SLCFs can be defined, and all components are optional allowing experiments such as pulse-response analyses to single forcers or gathering up non-CO:sub:2 species as an aggregate forcing.
A really basic example
Caution: does not follow the real world. Basic example_
A note about calibration and constraint
FaIR is naive. It will run whatever climate scenario and climate configuration you give it. If you create a runaway greenhouse effect, a snowball Earth, or violate the laws of physics, FaIR won't judge you. For simple climate models as for complex, garbage in leads to garbage out. We provide some emissions scenarios (the CMIP6 SSPs, as produced by rcmip.org), and reasonably sensible default configurations (as of late 2022) for you to play with. These should not be taken to be best estimates or up-to-date projections of the historical or future climate.
We have produced IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 consistent probabilistic ensembles elsewhere. These parameter sets are calibrated to CMIP6 models, run in a large Monte Carlo ensemble, and constrained based on six observed or assessed climate metrics. If you're writing a paper using FaIR, you should use these (or at the very least, revert to v1.6 and use the parameter set at https://zenodo.org/record/5513022). Give us time and we'll write this into a paper and release the code; if you want them now, get in touch_ and we'll give them to you. We're also working towards releasing annual updates.
Citation
If you use FaIR in your work, please cite the following reference depending on the version:
- v2.0+: Leach, N. J., Jenkins, S., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lynch, J., Cain, M., Walsh, T., Wu, B., Tsutsui, J., and Allen, M. R.: FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3007–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021, 2021
- v1.1-v1.6: Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Allen, M., Leach, N., Millar, R. J., Passerello, G. A., and Regayre, L. A.: FAIR v1.3: A simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model, Geosci. Model Dev., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018, 2018.
- v1.0 (or the concept of the state-dependent impulse-response function for CO2): Millar, R. J., Nicholls, Z. R., Friedlingstein, P., and Allen, M. R.: A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7213-7228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, 2017.
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.. _The Docs: https://fair.readthedocs.io/en/latest/installation.html
.. _Basic example: https://fair.readthedocs.io/en/latest/basic_run_example.html
.. _get in touch: https://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~mencsm/contact.htm
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